This month, the Trump administration approved a major oil pipeline project from Canada into the U.S. The project, dubbed “Keystone Light,” would stretch 647 miles from Canada through Montana and Wyoming and carry about two-thirds of the capacity of the original Keystone XL project. More than 70% of the route would be built within existing pipeline corridors and 80% on private land, sidestepping some of the political landmines that helped kill its predecessor.
The Keystone XL pipeline was canceled in 2021, on President Biden’s first day in office, framed as a win for tackling climate change. Five years later, the same demand exists, but the infrastructure still hasn’t been built to deliver it. Keystone XL would have carried roughly 830,000 barrels per day. Keystone Light starts at 550,000 barrels/day, though the pipeline is designed to scale to as much as 1.13 million barrels per day, exceeding the original Keystone XL proposal.
The Keystone Light approval demonstrates that canceling the original was a strategic blunder. Enverus Intelligence Research projects that Western Canadian oil production can grow by roughly one million barrels per day over the next seven years, but available pipeline space will be full by the early 2030s. Canadian Natural Resources has said publicly thata new pipeline is needed to unlock further oil sands growth. Even Canada’s recent pledge to the IEA to boost global oil supply faced skepticism because pipeline capacity is already maxed out, and there’s nowhere for extra barrels to go. Meanwhile, U.S. energy demand is surging, driven largely by data centers and electrification, making it harder to argue against the case for new supply infrastructure with each passing year.
The U.S. could’ve had this capacity approved five years ago, but today it is starting from near scratch. Bridger Pipeline, the Casper, Wyoming-based operator, has built an AI-based leak detection subsidiary called FlowState, and the new pipeline wouldbore 30 to 40 feet beneath major rivers, a direct engineering response to a 2015 pipeline failure, where the pipe was buried just eight feet under the riverbed and had become exposed.
Keystone Light is a step forward. It’s also a five-year-late do-over, two-thirds the original capacity, with the full buildout still years of permitting away. The last administration killed a pipeline, but the demand is still strong and the pipeline is badly needed.