Thanksgiving weekend’s shopping bonanza is one of the biggest seasons for the retail industry. Wedged between Black Friday and Cyber Monday is Small Business Saturday, the shopping holiday dedicated to supporting the mom-and-pop shops that underpin local economies and serve as the economic engine for our national economy.
2025 Shopping Trends
The 2025 holiday shopping season is setting up to be the biggest in history for retailers. A whopping 67 million shoppers are expected to turn out on Saturday, Nov. 29, according to the latest survey from the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Prosper Insights & Analytics. Most of those shoppers (80%) say they are specifically supporting local businesses.
Small Business Saturday sales and foot traffic will join Black Friday and Cyber Monday for what is predicted to be a record-breaking holiday shopping season. The NRF estimates that a record 186.9 million people plan to shop from Thanksgiving Day through Cyber Monday—a 2% increase (more than 3 million total shoppers) from 2024’s previous record.
Small Business is Big Business
Small Business Saturday is dedicated to highlighting the local retailers in communities and cities across the country. Big box stores, chain stores, and malls are important to the entire retail industry and employ millions of workers, but so do small businesses.
There are 33 million small businesses in America, employing 46% of all workers. Nearly one out of every 10 small businesses is in retail, totaling 2.7 million. Although most retailers have no employees, nearly a quarter of them do—employing 5.5 million workers.
Small businesses employ local workers and serve their communities. For example, they sponsor youth athletic teams, host outreaches, and can be gathering centers for community members.
Nati Mazor, owner of REED Leather, a Detroit-based ecommerce brand, explained to the NRF that every purchase makes a big local impact:
Shopping local — whether in person or online — keeps dollars circulating in our communities and helps small businesses like ours continue to innovate, hire and grow. Every purchase directly fuels American craftsmanship and entrepreneurship.
Policies Matter
Small businesses are likely eager for a robust holiday shopping season. Increased spending would be a boon for small businesses that are uncertain about the future. According to the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, optimism declined 0.6 points in October to 98.2 but remained above its 52-year average of 98. The government shutdown played a significant role, according to the NRF.
Surprisingly, hiring is the top issue for small businesses, not tariffs or inflation.
- Labor quality (27%)
- Taxes (16%)
- Inflation (12%)
- Poor sales (10%)
- Labor costs (8%)
- Government regulations and red tape (7%)
Small businesses are struggling to hire talented workers and worry that increased healthcare costs will only make it harder to retain and attract talented workers.
That said, the government shutdown is now in the rearview mirror, but it weighed on small businesses, which feared the losses would worsen if the government remained closed.
On the bright side, the tax cuts package (“One Big, Beautiful Bill) will deliver even more tax relief and certainty for small businesses. Deregulation, tax cuts, and increased energy production are excellent buffers against other sources of uncertainty, such as consumer spending and tariffs.
Bottom Line
Record-breaking consumer spending this Small Business Saturday will be a big gift to small businesses. Not only will it boost their bottom lines, but it will also deliver the confidence of a stronger financial future. Strong spending paired with the conservatives’ pro-growth economic agenda of tax cuts, deregulation, and energy production will lift small businesses into a prosperous 2026.