The holiday season is upon us! Along with time spent with loved ones, people are turning their thoughts toward their holiday spending and presents for Christmas. Black Friday 2024 delivered another blockbuster day of sales for retailers, with U.S. online sales reaching a record $10.8 billion—a 10.2% increase from the previous year. The 2024 holiday shopping season generated $241.4 billion in online spending from Nov. 1 to Dec. 31, up 8.7% from 2023. As consumers navigate economic pressures, early forecasts for 2025 point to continued expansion, albeit at a more measured pace, with total holiday retail sales potentially topping $1 trillion for the first time.
Online spending during Black Friday has climbed steadily since 2019, fueled by e-commerce growth and pandemic-era shifts. Globally, Black Friday last year generated $74.4 billion in online sales, a 5% rise from 2023, with the United States accounting for about 14.5% of the total.
Last year saw 87.3 million online shoppers and 81.7 million in-store visitors over the 2024 Thanksgiving weekend. Cyber Monday followed with $13.3 billion in online sales, up from $12.4 billion in 2023. Buy now, pay later transactions hit $686 million on Black Friday alone, part of $18.2 billion spent during the season with these payment plans. Despite inflation concerns, shoppers planned an average 8% increase in holiday spending in 2024, reaching $1,778 per person last year.
This year, even with cost-of-living concerns, analysts anticipate solid but moderated growth for Black Friday. Adobe projects U.S. online holiday sales (Nov. 1 to Dec. 31) at $253.4 billion, a 5.3% increase from 2024. Black Friday online sales alone could top $11 billion, up 8.7% compared to last year.
The National Retail Federation forecasts total U.S. holiday retail sales between $1.01 trillion and $1.02 trillion, an approximate 4% increase over 2024, marking the first trillion-dollar holiday season. Deloitte’s survey echoes caution, with average consumer spending projected at $1,595 over the holiday season, down slightly due to economic uncertainty. However, globally, Black Friday spending may reach over $250 billion, aligning with Adobe’s U.S. online holiday estimate but spanning international markets.
Black Friday evolves with technology and consumer priorities. Mobile commerce dominated 2024, comprising over half of U.S. orders and generating $131.5 billion in holiday revenue. Projections for 2025 suggest this share will be maintained with a potential slight increase.
Artificial intelligence boosted $14 billion in global sales last year, lifting conversions by 9%. Nearly 39% of shoppers used AI for shopping in 2024, with potentially 50% intending to use it during the 2025 season. During the 2024 holiday shopping season, AI chatbot interactions jumped by 1,800%.
For younger shoppers, sustainability gains traction, particularly with Gen Z and millennials who favor eco-friendly apparel. Also, influencers seem to be living up to their titles as a large portion of Gen Z purchases can be traced to them, who convert sales at six times the rate of traditional ads.
Electronics and apparel led the charge in retail, but nearly every category posted triple-digit sales growth on Black Friday last year, with only a slight decrease from 2023. Electronics accounted for $55.3 billion for the holiday season (up 8.8%), while apparel hit $45.6 billion (up 9.9%). Also, jewelry and accessories sales saw the biggest web traffic spike in 2024 at 23.8%.
As we enter the frenzy of the holiday shopping season, Black Friday remains a resilient barometer of consumer sentiment, blending tradition with innovation. In the end, retailers who lean into personalization, sustainability, and seamless tech stand to capture the most even amid tempered optimism.