With the government shutdown ending so close to Thanksgiving, Americans have little time to save up for the holidays. Thanksgiving tends to be a large feast that many people struggle to afford. As the Consumer Price Index for food shows, prices have risen 3.1% over 12 months ending in September. Many would think the numerous items making up a Thanksgiving meal would be pricier as well.
However, according to the American Farm Bureau, the cost of a Thanksgiving meal for 10 has decreased 5% from 2024 to $55.18. Their menu for this includes turkey, stuffing, sweet potatoes, rolls, peas, cranberries, veggies, pumpkin pie, and whipped cream. The Farm Bureau notes that wholesale turkey prices are slightly higher than last year, but grocery stores are drawing consumers in with holiday deals and lower retail prices.
Although inflation has increased over the last year, the real price paid by consumers and thus the real impact on consumers may differ from what is reported in a good way. Several reports find that major retailers have reduced the price of their Thanksgiving meal deals. For example, Aldi, Walmart, Lidl, Schnucks, and Target all have lower prices than in 2024. Not only are dinner prices lower than a year ago, but the American Farm Bureau also found that a Thanksgiving dinner for 10 is at the lowest cost since 2021.
Why The Disparity?
Much of the food price inflation has taken place in categories that do not typically appear on the Thanksgiving menu, such as beef and pork. Turkey, however, has had a small increase of 0.6% over the last 12 months. Prices on other classic Thanksgiving dishes, such as pies and vegetables, are mixed, with some increasing moderately and others decreasing. The Farm Bureau highlights labor costs driven by worker shortages and increased pay mandates in agriculture as the drivers of these side dish costs.
Positively, retailers are passing on savings to consumers rather than significantly higher costs. While the Consumer Price Index captures general price changes, Thanksgiving prices are unique in that there is much competition among retailers that helps to keep prices low, especially in budget packages from Walmart or Aldi, which offer 10-person meals for $40 without sacrificing on the multitude of sides, desserts, and turkey that the holiday is known for. Both of these stores rely on private brand items along with a mixture of well-known brands to compete with other grocery stores.
Thankfully, consumers will feel some relief this year, but after over four years of high inflation, they are understandably tired of high prices. A review of the overall price increases from four years ago reveals just how much prices have risen on Thanksgiving items:
Encouraging Competition
As many Americans have worried about their ability to afford groceries, Turkey producers have coordinated with retailers to pass on their savings from feeding fewer birds. This price decline shows in the share of the total dinner cost. On average, the turkey accounts for 43% of total dinner cost, but in 2025, it only accounts for 39%. On top of turkey producers, low wheat prices have helped reduce the cost of pie crusts, dinner rolls, and stuffing. As producers find ways to save money, consumers benefit from cost-saving methods.
Bottom Line
Although inflation slowly grows, Thanksgiving is more affordable than may be expected. Of course, making budget-friendly swaps for private labels will help. But the Thanksgiving meal can continue to please for the holidays.