Back-to-School on a Budget

This week is Back-to-School Week at the Center for Economic Opportunity. We will feature commentary and analysis on affordability for families preparing for the new school year.

As summer winds down and school bells ring, U.S. parents are bracing for the back-to-school season with tighter budgets. Surveys from Deloitte and the National Retail Federation (NRF) show parents expect to spend about $500 per K-12 student on essentials like supplies, clothing, and shoes. This year’s spending reflects a nation of parents stretching dollars, chasing deals, and rethinking value.

Recent surveys paint a varied picture of back-to-school spending. 

Spending per child:

• Deloitte estimates parents will spend between $500 and $600 per child.
• KPMG reports an average of $342 per K-12 student, up 10% from $320 in 2024, driven by inflation rather than increased purchases. 
• NRF notes a slight dip for K-12 families, projecting $858 per family, down from $875 last year. For college students, the NRF estimates $1,326 per family, down from $1,365 in 2024.
• In a survey about back-to-school tech spending, CNET reports a sharp drop to $329 per shopper on tech products, down from $662 last year.
• NerdWallet pegs the average at $741 per student (K-12 or college), a $200 increase from 2024.

Overall spending:

• Deloitte forecasts $30.9 billion in total back-to-school sales, flat compared to last year.
• The NRF predicts a combined $128 billion for K-12 ($39.4 billion, up from $38.8 billion) and college ($88.8 billion, up from $86.6 billion). 
• U.S. News & World Report notes that 62% of Americans expect to spend more this year than in 2024.

Categories of spending:

• For K-12 families, the NRF estimates nearly $300 will go toward electronics, $250 for clothing, $170 for shoes, and $144 for basic supplies like pencils, paper, and notebooks. College families are expected to spend $310 on electronics and $191 on furnishings.

KPMG’s data shows spending varies by age group:

• Preschool: $183 (up 31% from 2024)
• Elementary: $332 (up 13%)
• Middle school: $339 (up 9%)
• High school: $340 (up 2%)
• College: $418 (up 10%)

Deloitte found that younger parents (Gen Z and millennials) who use social media spend almost twice as much as non-users, often influenced by online trends.

Drivers of Back-to-School Spending Increases

While spending is flat or slightly up in most surveys, the NRF and CNET report declines per person, largely due to fears of tariffs. About 51% of parents started shopping earlier to beat price hikes. Essentials like groceries and apparel are driving increases, up 25% and 3%, respectively, while spending on toys and sporting goods has dropped 17% and 14%.

Economic concerns are weighing heavily: 85% of parents worry about tariff-driven price increases, and 71% are planning their budgets more carefully. Financial stress is real, with 78% of parents citing tech costs as a burden and 56% finding the season overwhelming.

Parents are getting savvy at stretching their budgets. About 46% shop at mass merchants, 55% buy online, and 64% compare stores for the best deals. Retailers are encouraged to lean into promotions, loyalty programs, and digital channels to attract younger shoppers.

As the back-to-school season unfolds, U.S. parents are navigating a challenging landscape of rising costs and economic uncertainty with resilience and strategy. By prioritizing essentials, seeking out deals, and leveraging online and in-store options, they’re making every dollar stretch further. While financial stress and tariff concerns loom large, parents are redefining value, balancing budgets with the needs of their students. 

Parents will undoubtedly take advantage of back-to-school sales tax holidays this year. As my colleague, Patrice Onwuka, wrote yesterday, some 16 red and blue states and Puerto Rico are slated to offer multi-day suspensions of sales taxes on clothing, shoes, supplies, and electronics. Sales tax eliminations are smart policies that provide financial relief to parents, even if for a short period of time.

This season, their adaptability and savvy shopping underscore a commitment to preparing their children for success, no matter the economic climate.